Prenatal care at Minsa and adverse perinatal outcomes in Ica: an observational analysis using a probit model

Abstract

The primary objective was to examine the associations between adequate prenatal care, care provided by MINSA, and parity with adverse perinatal outcomes in women who had recently given birth in Ica, Peru. Methods. The results of an observational study using secondary data—which reported 717 observations—were reorganized, and a Probit model with robust standard errors was applied. Coefficients, marginal effects, scenario probabilities, and published diagnostics were retained. The source identifies ENDES as the primary database, without reproducibly specifying the time period and filters used. Results. A total of 224 observations with adverse outcomes and 493 without adverse outcomes were reported. Adequate prenatal care had a coefficient of −0.3264 (95% CI: −0.5821 to −0.0707; p = 0.012) and MINSA of −0.4033 (−0.6102 to −0.1964; p < 0.001). The reported marginal effects were −0.1128 and −0.1394, respectively. Parity showed no evidence of an association (p = 0.902). The predicted odds ranged from 0.5232 when both indicators were zero to 0.2509 when both were one. The AUC was 0.5940 (95% CI: 0.5486 to 0.6393). It is concluded that the care indicators were inversely associated with the outcome within the reported specification. Discrimination was limited, and the combined scenarios did not demonstrate synergy or causal efficacy. The construction of variables, sample design, and validation must be verified before extrapolating the results or using them in clinical decisions.